When is the flood of the year. Only in seven regions, experts expect extremely high floods

March 7, 2017

Forecast prepared at the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia the highest levels floods and opening dates of the rivers of the south, west and center of the European territory of Russia in 2017.

Winter 2016-2017 in the Northwestern, Central and Southern federal districts it was moderately warm and humid. The anomaly of the average daily air temperature in the Northwestern Federal District averaged 2-6 degrees over the winter. In the Central Federal District the air temperature in December was close to the norm, in January and February it was 2-4 degrees above it. In the Southern Federal District, the air temperature anomaly fluctuated during the winter from minus 2-5 degrees in December to plus 2 degrees in January; in February, the air temperature here was close to normal. The amount of precipitation in winter in most of the territory of these districts was close to the norm. At the same time, in the Leningrad, Pskov, Moscow, Yaroslavl and Ivanovo regions, precipitation was 30-40% less than usual, and in the Krasnodar Territory - 30% more than the norm.

By March 1, snow reserves in the river basins of the north-west of the European part of Russia amounted to only 30-55% of the norm. On the Upper Oka, on the Don, Khoper, there was 15-40% more snow than usual; in the basins of the rivers of the Trans-Volga region, in the Medveditsa, in the Southern Urals, snow reserves were close to the norm.

Pre-winter soil moisture was also heterogeneous: in the river basins of the north-west of the European part of Russia and in the Trans-Volga region, it was 15-60% higher than the norm, in the Upper Oka, in the Medveditsa basin and in the 25-30% less than normal.

In the river basins of the north-west of the European part of Russia, on the Upper Oka, the soil is frozen by 5-40 cm; in the basins of the Don, Khopra and Medveditsa - by 20-50 cm. In the Trans-Volga region, in the Southern Urals, the depth of soil freezing was greater and amounted to 40-100 cm.

The maximum levels of spring floods are expected to be mainly below the norm: on the rivers of the north-west of the European part of Russia (by 0.4-1.7 m), on the Upper Oka (by 2.1-4.9 m), on its tributaries - Zusha , Upe, Zhizdra and Protva (by 1.0-1.9 m), on the Don above the town of Serafimovich, as well as on Bolshaya Sosna (by 2.0-2.8 m), on Khoper, Voronezh, Medveditsa ( by 0.2-1.0 m), on the Dnieper above Rechitsa, Sozh and Berezina (by 0.3-3.0 m), on the Desna near the city of Bryansk (by 1.2 m). Above the norm, the maximum water levels will be on the Oka near the city of Orel, on the Pripyat, on the river. Ural (by 0.1-0.7 m), on the rivers of the Volga region (by 0.4-1.9 m). Maximum water levels are expected to be close to the norm on the Dnieper near Smolensk.

The inflow of water into the Tsimlyansk reservoir on the Don during the spring flood is expected to be 30% less than the norm; the inflow of water into the Iriklinskoye reservoir on the river. Ural will be close to it.

In early March, 20-25 days earlier than normal, the Volga broke down below Volgograd, the Dnieper in the section Smolensk - Loev, Sozha, Desna and Zapadnaya Dvina in the section Vitebsk - Verkhnedvinsk.

At the end of the first and second decades of March, 7-16 days earlier than normal, the opening of the Oka is expected above the mouth of the river. Moscow, Upper and Middle Don, Khopra below the mouth of the river. Ravens, the Dnieper above Smolensk and the Western Dvina above Vitebsk.

In the third decade of March, 8-10 days earlier than normal, the opening of the Volga is expected above Tver, Oka below the mouth of the river. Moksha, Sura and Khopra above the mouth of the river Vorona.

On March 14, a press conference was held at the Rossiyskaya Gazeta media center on the topic: "Spring flood 2017: the most problematic areas", which was attended by the head of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Monitoring environment Alexander Frolov; Yury Simonov, Head of the Laboratory of the Department of River Hydrological Forecasts of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia; Head of the Department of Water Resources and Regulation of Water Management Activities (Rosvodresurs) Dmitry Savostitsky.

“Great weather in Moscow, in the south and west of Central Russia is by no means a reason to relax,” Alexander Frolov said. regions, the Republic of Bashkortostan, the Trans-Volga region, where, for a number of reasons, fairly high levels of spring floods are expected.

"The most important huge problem area is 5-7 constituent entities of the Russian Federation: in the Siberian Federal District, Altai Republic, Altai Territory, Novosibirsk, Kemerovo and Tomsk regions. There is evidence that we can expect extremely high floods there this year, - said the head of Roshydromet.

So, what does the spring flood depend on? Several factors, the combination of which will determine the development of the situation in a particular region.

The first is the stock of snow accumulated in winter. The winter was snowy, quite cold, without thaws - this is an anomaly, the snow reserves at the beginning of March / end of winter are above the norm in most of the Russian Federation.

The second factor is the depth of freezing and soil moisture. The soil is ready to absorb water or the water will roll in the form of melt runoff into the rivers.

The third is the thickness of the ice on the rivers, since we have so many rivers, especially in the north, in the Asian part of Russia, flow from south to north. Rivers open up in the south, causing ice jams, which creates very serious problems: the levels rise quickly, to high values.

The fourth factor influencing the flood is the weather situation. Rain, heat - now the weather is 20-25 days ahead of the normal schedule. We live in the middle of April - the central part, the south of Russia, the west of the European territory of Russia. This is a long-term anomaly that is one of the largest in the history of instrumental observations."

The traditionally dangerous area is the Sukhona River, where a large traffic jam is usually created. “The city of Veliky Ustyug is located there, this year, unlike last year, the situation will be much milder,” said Alexander Frolov. “Last year, the level rose to 9.5 meters due to traffic jams. There was a huge 60-kilometer ice plug This year the ice is strong, crystalline, but since events will still develop rather slowly, we expect that there will obviously be a traffic jam, but without such high level rises. this is already the Arkhangelsk region, in the central and middle reaches of the Northern Dvina and definitely near Arkhangelsk. Relevant work will be carried out both on blackening the ice and cutting ice, icebreakers will be used to crush ice. Nevertheless, this is an area of ​​\u200b\u200bhigh danger."

Yury Simonov, Head of the Laboratory of the Department of River Hydrological Forecasts of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, updated the forecast for the Moscow Region. “On the territory of the Moscow Region, the maximum snow content turned out to be close to the norm, somewhere slightly exceeded the norm, somewhere 90% of the norm was. Therefore, in general, if we talk about snow, these are approximately normal values ​​on average relative to long-term averages. But here there is a second strong factor that characterizes the loss of meltwater, this is the freezing of the soil.This year, the soil froze very slightly, only 3-13 cm in different areas of the Moscow region.Accordingly, under such conditions, the soil is ready to absorb meltwater when it melts and retain water and then release it into the river network. Of course, this affects the fact that the maximum levels will be somewhat below the norm, "Yuri Simonov explained.

Dmitry Savostitsky, Head of the Department of Water Resources and Regulation of Water Management Activities (Rosvodresurs), spoke about reservoirs, the main regulators of flows that can mitigate and to some extent make it possible to meet the needs of the population and objects in water resources in the basins of major rivers. “We have 343 largest reservoirs with a capacity of more than 10 million cubic meters. They are managed strictly according to the rules. For each, a rule is being developed for the use of the reservoir, which includes, among other things, our current cases of development and preparation for floods,” Dmitry Savostitsky shared. We have a population of 70 million people in the Volga River Basin, and our reservoirs are already prepared to receive flood waters that are expected."

Due to the fact that there is a prolonged low water at Baikal, specialists work and manage the lake in the minimum allowable drawdown modes in order to provide vital system supplies for the population that lives in the Irkutsk hydroelectric complex. "We maintain this regime for a long time: and in winter period, and in summer. And thanks to this, right now we are balancing on the verge of the minimum allowable level of Lake Baikal, - said Dmitry Savostitsky. - In general, we have no concerns about the main large cascades of reservoirs. Everything is under control. For each of these reservoirs, a special group has been created at the territorial level. If we talk about the Bolshekamsky cascade, then this is the level of federal government. We are already making decisions directly in Moscow on filling and depleting these reservoirs. As for other reservoirs, these decisions are made at the territorial level, with the participation of the subjects of the federation and all services and commissions for the prevention of emergencies at the regional level. They also participate in the control mode of these cascades."

March 14, 2017

Information about the expected nature of the spring flood in 2017 on the rivers Russian Federation and preliminary forecast of water inflow to large reservoirs in the second quarter

The winter of 2016-2017 in most regions of the European part of Russia was close to normal - without prolonged thaws and mostly snowy.

By the beginning of March 2017, in general, in the basin of the river. Volga, the water reserve in the snow cover was 136 mm (123% of the norm). In most private basins, the water reserves in the snow cover exceeded the usual values ​​by 15–35%, and only in the basins of the Moscow and Kama rivers, as well as the Volgograd reservoir, were they close to the norm. Almost throughout the river basin. Volga snow reserves were higher than last year by 17-49 mm, and in the basins of the river. Kama, Saratov and Volgograd reservoirs are close to them.

In the river basin Don above the Tsimlyansk reservoir, the water reserves in the snow amounted to 145% of the norm and were 56 mm higher than last year. In the basins of its eastern tributaries - pp. Khopra and Medveditsa - snow reserves amounted to 135 and 80% of the norm, respectively.

In the basins of the river Northern Dvina, Sukhona, Vaga, South, Pinega, Vychegda and Mezen, the water reserve in the snow cover was 132-141% of the norm. In almost all river basins in the north of the European part of the country, snow reserves turned out to be 7-53 mm higher than last year, and only in the river basin. Vychegdy - 28 mm less.

In the northwest, snow reserves in the basins of the river. Narva and Volkhov were 31% and 113% of the norm, respectively.

In the basins of rivers and reservoirs of Siberia, the water reserves in the snow at the end of February were mainly 85-161% of the norm. The largest reserves of water in the snow (150-160% of the norm) were observed on the Upper Ob and in the basin of the river. Tobol. In the basin of the Upper Yenisei, snow reserves exceeded the usual values ​​by 30-45%, and in the basin of the river. Angara and Lake Baikal, they were close to normal.

In the river basin Lena, the water reserves in the snow were almost everywhere close to the average values. Above the usual (1.3-2.0 times) were the reserves of water in the snow in the basin of the river. Kolyma.

In the river basin Amur, accumulated by the beginning of March, the water reserves in the snow were mostly less than the norm or close to it, only in the basin of the river. Ussuri in some places exceeded it by 20-30%.

Pre-winter soil moistening was heterogeneous: in the river basins of the north-west of the European part of Russia and in the Trans-Volga region, it was 15–60% higher than the norm; Don and Khoper - 25-30% less than the norm.

In most of the country, the soil was slightly frozen. In the river basins of the northwest, on the Upper Oka, the soil has frozen to 5-40 cm; in the basins of the Don, Khopra and Medveditsa - by 20-50 cm, and only in the Trans-Volga region and in the Southern Urals, the depth of soil freezing was 40-100 cm.

In connection with the positive temperature anomaly in the second half of February, the development of spring floods on the rivers began. Kaliningrad region and in the river basin. Don. By the beginning of March, the river was opened from the ice. Neman and its tributaries, an intensive rise in the water level began. In March, the rise in water level on the river. The Neman and its tributaries will continue due to precipitation and surge phenomena with strong western and southwestern winds. The maximum levels of spring floods on the Pregolya and Deyma rivers are expected to be close to the norm or slightly above it, and on the river. Neman and Matrosovka are below the norm.

By the beginning of March, the lower course of the river was opened from ice. Don, passed the maximum levels of spring flood (below the average annual values ​​by 0.1-0.8 m) on small rivers of the Rostov region. Melting and destruction of the ice cover was observed on the rivers of the Middle Don basin, which was accompanied in some places by the formation of thin ice jams.

In the first ten days of March, due to warm weather, the destruction of the ice cover and the development of spring processes began on the rivers of the north-west of the European part of the country, on the Western Dvina, the Dnieper, in the upper reaches of the Volga, as well as in the basin of the Upper and Middle Oka.

Opening of the ice of the rivers of the European part of the country in 2017

In early March, 20-25 days earlier than normal, the river opened up. Volga below the city of Volgograd, r. Dnieper below the city of Smolensk.

At the end of the first and second decades of March, 7-16 days earlier than normal, the opening of the river is expected. Oka above the mouth of the river. Moscow, Upper and Middle Don, r. Khoper below the mouth of the river. Crow, r. Dnieper above the city of Smolensk, as well as the river. Western Dvina.

In the third decade of March, 8-10 days earlier than normal, the opening of the river is expected. Volga above the city of Tver, r. Oka below the mouth of the river. Moksha, Sura and Khoper above the mouth of the river. Voron, rivers of the Pskov, Novgorod regions and the Zavolzhsky regions of the Saratov region.

In the first ten days of April, the rivers of the south of the Leningrad Region will open from ice (by 5-10, in some places up to 15 days earlier than the norm), the lower reaches of the river. Kostroma, Vetluga, as well as the rivers of the Samara and Orenburg regions.

In the second decade of April, the opening will spread to the rivers of the north of the Leningrad region, the south of the Republic of Karelia, the upper course of the river. Kostroma, Vetluga, Sukhona, the lower reaches of the river. Vyatka, as well as on the rivers of the Republic of Tatarstan, the Republic of Bashkortostan, Chelyabinsk region.

In the third decade of April, the rivers of the north of the Republic of Karelia, as well as the lower reaches of the river, will open from the ice. Sukhona and Vychegda, Northern Dvina (with the exception of the lower reaches), the upper reaches of the river. Vyatki, r. Kama and the rivers of its basin.

In the first ten days of May, the rivers of the south of the Murmansk region, the lower reaches of the Northern Dvina, the upper course of the river will open from the ice. Vychegda and Pechory.

In the second and third ten days of May, the opening of the rivers of the European part of the country will be completed.

The formation of dangerous ice jams is possible when the lower reaches of the river are opened from ice. Shelon, Lovat, Msta, Pola, Pasha, Oyat, Syasi, rivers of the Republic of Karelia (rivers Ivina, Vodla, Shuya), small steppe and mountain rivers of the Republic of Bashkortostan, as well as the Belaya and Ufa rivers; Northern Dvina (section of the village of Brin-Navolok - village of Yemetsk), Pinega (village of Nizhnyaya Palenga), Mezen (village of Lampozhnya), Pechora (city of Naryan-Mar).

Opening of the ice of the rivers of the Asian part of the country in 2017

Ice break-up of most of the rivers in the Asian part of the country is expected in terms that are mostly close to the norm.

Earlier than usual (by 3-5, in some places up to 15 days) ice drift will begin on the Upper Ob and Upper Yenisei.

In the first ten days of April, the destruction of the ice cover on the rivers of the south of Primorsky Krai will begin.

In the second decade of April, ice drift will begin on the river. Tobol (upper course) and its tributaries, in the upper reaches of the Ob, rivers in the north of Primorsky Krai.

In the third decade of April, the middle and lower reaches of the river will open from ice. Tobol and the rivers of its basin; rr. Ishim, Irtysh to the mouth of the river. Tobol, Ob to the mouth of the river. Tom, Yenisei to the mouth of the Angara, the rivers of the south of the Irkutsk region, the upper reaches of the Lena, the rivers of the south of the Trans-Baikal Territory, pp. Shilka, Argun, Amur from the city of Blagoveshchensk to the city of Komsomolsk-on-Amur, the lower course of the Ussuri, the rivers of the south of the Sakhalin region.

In the first decade of May, ice drift will spread to the river. Ob to the village of Oktyabrsky, r. Irtysh to the mouth, r. Yenisei from the mouth of the Angara to the mouth of the Podkamennaya Tunguska, as well as on the river. Northern Sosva, Konda, Angara, Podkamennaya Tunguska, the upper reaches of the river. Lena, on the rivers of the north of the Trans-Baikal Territory, rr. Zeya, Bureya, Amur below the city of Komsomolsk-on-Amur and on the rivers of the center and north of the Sakhalin Region.

In the second decade of May, the river will open from the ice. Ob to the mouth of Kazym, r. Yenisei below the city of Turukhansk, the upper course of the river. Lower Tunguska, r. Lena to Yakutsk, r. Kolyma in the upper reaches, the rivers of the Okhotsk coast of the Magadan Region and the rivers of the Kamchatka Territory.

In the third decade of May and the first decade of June, the lower reaches of the river will open from ice. Ob, Pur, Taz, Yenisei below the city of Turukhansk, lower reaches of the river. Lower Tunguska, r. Lena below the city of Yakutsk, pp. Olenek, Yana, Indigirka, middle and lower reaches of the river. Kolyma, r. Anabar and rivers of the extreme north-east of Siberia.

The formation of dangerous ice jams is possible on the river. Ob (near the city of Kamen-na-Obi, in the sections of the village of Nikolskoye - the village of Molchanovo, the city of Kolpashevo - the village of Kargasok), in separate sections of the Biya, Charysh, Chumysh, Tom rivers (in the region of the city of Tomsk), Mras-Su, Kondoma, Berd, Inya, Baksa, Karasuk, on the Irtysh, Northern Sosva, on the rivers of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, on the Yenisei (near the city of Kyzyl, in the sections of the village of Nazimovo - the village of Podkamennaya Tunguska, the city of Igarka - Dudinka), on Podkamennaya Tunguska (estuary section), Nizhnyaya Tunguska (section of Tura village - mouth). With a friendly and early spring, traffic jams are possible on the river. Abakan, Tuba, Kan, Taseeva, Chulym and their tributaries, on the Biryus, Kirenga, Lena (in the upper and middle reaches, including in the suburbs of Yakutsk), on the Aldan (within the Tomponsky district), on the rivers Yana, Indigirka , Kolyma (section of the Ust-Srednekanskaya hydroelectric power station - the village of Ust-Srednekan), Taui (section of the village of Talon - the village of Balagannoye), on the rivers of the Trans-Baikal Territory (Argun, Shilka, Ingoda, Nercha, Vitim, Selenga, Chikoy, Khilok), on the Upper and Lower Amur, Khor, Anyui, Tumnin, Uda, as well as on the rivers of the Jewish Autonomous Region.

Maximum levels of spring flood on the rivers of the European part of the country in 2017

As a result of the hydrometeorological conditions prevailing by the beginning of March, it can be expected that the flood of 2017 in the south, west and center of the European part of the country will be lower than usual. In the basins of the river In Kostroma, Unzha, Vyatka, Kama, Ural, rivers of the Trans-Volga region, flood maxima will be above the norm, in other river basins - mostly close to it.

With the friendly development of spring processes, as well as in the event of heavy rains and the formation of ice jams, the highest maximum water levels (by 0.5-1.0 m, in some places up to 1.5 m above the norm) are expected on the river. Kostroma, Unzha, Sukhona, Vaga, Vologda, Vyatka, the upper reaches of the Kama and its tributaries, Belaya, Ufa, the rivers of the Samara region and the Volga regions of the Saratov region, as well as in the Ural river basin.

Below the norm (by 1.0-1.5 m, in some places up to 2.5-4.9 m), the maximum flood levels will be on the Don, Oka, Upper Dnieper and most of their tributaries, as well as on the Pskovskaya, south of Leningrad and north Kaliningrad regions.

On the other rivers of the European part of the country, flood maxima are expected to be mostly close to the norm.

Maximum spring flood levels on the rivers of the Asian part of the country in 2017

In the Asian part of the country, the highest flood maxima (by 0.5-1.5 m, in some places up to 2.7 m above the norm) are expected on the Ob to the mouth of the Tym River, Irtysh, Ishim, Tobol, Upper Kolyma and their tributaries, as well as on the rivers of the Primorsky Territory, the south of the Kamchatka Territory and the south of the Sakhalin Region.

Below the usual (by 0.5-1.0 m, in some places up to 1.6 m) there will be flood maxima on the Yenisei below the mouth of the Angara, Upper Lena, Podkamennaya Tunguska, Lower Tunguska, Nadym and Kazym.

On the other rivers of the Asian part of the country, flood maxima are expected to be mostly close to the norm.

With the friendly development of the spring flood during the passage of its maxima, flooding of the lowered coastal parts of the following settlements is possible:

Tikhvin, Tosno, Lyuban ( Leningrad region);

yrs. Kursk, Rylsk, with. Lebyazhye (Kursk region);

· With. Ushcherpie (Bryansk region);

· With. Kuzmina Gat (Tambov region);

· City of Ostashkov, floodplain areas in the basins of the rivers Mologa (near the village of Maksatikha), Zapadnaya Dvina (near the city of Zapadnaya Dvina), Obsha (near the city of Bely), Mezha near the village of Zharkovsky (Tver region) are also possible flooding;

· Kirov (Kirov region);

· Nizhny Novgorod (Nizhny Novgorod region);

· low coastal areas of individual villages and villages in the basins of the Kostroma, Unzha and Vetluga rivers in Buysky, Soligalichsky, Makaryevsky, Manturovsky, Neysky, Vokhomsky, Ponazyrevsky and Sharyinsky districts (Kostroma and Nizhny Novgorod regions);

· Alatyr (Chuvash Republic);

yrs. Ufa, Birsk, Sterlitamak (Republic of Bashkortostan);

yrs. Velsk and Shenkursk (Arkhangelsk region);

low coastal areas of individual villages and villages located on the rivers Sviyaga, Selda (Ulyanovsk region), in the upper reaches of Samara ( Orenburg region), on the rivers Syzran, Bolshoy Cheremshan, Sok, Kondurcha, Samara, Bolshoy and Maly Kinel, Chapaevka, Chagra ( Samara Region);

· low coastal areas of settlements located on the rivers Kazanka, Mesha, Sheshma, Dymka, Kubnya, Xun and Ik (Republic of Tatarstan);

low coastal areas of settlements, bridges, roads, economic facilities located in the floodplains of the rivers Veslyana, Kosa, Inva near the city of Kudymkar, Chusovaya, Sylva (Perm Territory), Tura, Nica near the city of Irbit, Sosva (Sverdlovsk region), Tobol near the city of Kurgan (Kurgan region), Ui, Iset near the city of Dalmatovo, Sim near the city of Asha and the city of Minyar, Ai near the cities. Zlatoust and Kusa (Chelyabinsk region), as well as flooding of the floodplain and economic facilities on the frozen small rivers of the Chelyabinsk region;

coastal areas of settlements, summer cottages and economic facilities on the river. Ob (near the village of Ust-Charyshskaya Pristan, Barnaul, Kamen-on-Ob), r. Katun near the village Joints, Charysh near the village. Beloglazovo (Altai Territory), on the river. Tom (Mezhdurechensk, Novokuznetsk, Krapivino village, Kemerovo), r. Kondoma (near the village of Kuzedeevo), r. Mras-Su (Myski town), r. Kiya near the city of Mariinsk (Kemerovo region), on the Ob near the city of Novosibirsk (Novosibirsk region), near the village. Molchanovo, Kolpashevo, with. Kargasok, r. Tom (Tomsk), r. Chulym (v. Teguldet, v. Baturino), r. Tea at the village Podgornoe ( Tomsk region);

flooding by melt waters of drainless low areas of the area of ​​the southern regions of Omsk and Tyumen regions;

settlements located along the banks of the rivers Tuba, Kan, Kas ( Krasnoyarsk region);

The city of Kyzyl (Republic of Tyva);

Settlements, agricultural lands located along the banks of the rivers Biryusa, Upper Lena, Kirenga, Lower Tunguska, Iya and their tributaries ( Irkutsk region);

· low areas of settlements located on the Lena (in the Lensky, Olekminsky and Namsky districts, in the suburbs of Yakutsk), on the river. Kolyma near the village of Zyryanka and the city of Srednekolymsk (Republic of Sakha (Yakutia));

Settlements located along the banks of the rivers: Spasovka (the city of Spassk-Dalniy), Ussuri (Chuguevsky, Kirovsky, Lesozavodsky, Dalnerechensky districts), Arsenyevka (Yakovlevsky district), Ilistaya (Chernigov district), Malinovka, Bolshaya Ussurka (Krasnoarmeisky, Dalnerechensky districts) in Primorsky Krai;

in the river basin Tym and rivers of the northern regions of the Sakhalin region;

· With. Markovo, Vaegi, Ilirney, Chuvanskoye, Keperveem (Chukotka Autonomous Okrug).

In the South, North Caucasus, Volga, Ural and in the south of the Siberian federal districts during the passage of spring floods, breakthroughs of unemptied ponds on small rivers and related flooding are possible.

According to forecasts of specialists of the Hydrometeorological Center most of rivers in the region will open from the ice earlier than the climatic norm. So, for example, the Volga River below the city of Volgograd and the Dnieper below Smolensk have already opened up. This happened 20-25 days earlier than expected. Snow reserves in most areas European territory Russia this year slightly exceed the norm or meet it. Expected opening dates for rivers according to the Russian Hydrometeorological Center

An abnormally warm beginning of spring in European Russia will lead to early floods. The Hydrometeorological Center of Russia issued a certificate on the nature of the spring flood in 2017 on the rivers of our country. Most of the rivers in the region are expected to break ice earlier than normal. For example,

the Volga River has already opened below the city of Volgograd and the Dnieper below Smolensk. This happened 20-25 days earlier than expected.

At present, the opening of the Oka is expected above the mouth of the Moscow River, as well as the Upper and Middle Don, the Khoper River below the mouth of the Vorona River. On these rivers, the ice usually melts 1-2 weeks later. At the end of March (8-10 days earlier than normal), the opening of the Volga River above Tver, the Oka River below the mouth of the Moksha, as well as the rivers of the Pskov and Novgorod Regions and the Trans-Volga Regions of the Saratov Region are expected.

Snow reserves in most regions of the European territory of Russia this year slightly exceed the norm or correspond to it. Thus, in the Volga basin, the water reserve in the snow cover was 136 mm (which is 123% of the norm). Snow reserves in almost the entire basin turned out to be 17-49 mm higher than last year. A in the basins of the Moscow and Kama rivers, as well as the Volgograd reservoir, they were close to the norm.

According to the specialists of the Hydrometeorological Center, as a result of the hydrometeorological conditions prevailing by the beginning of March, it can be expected that the flood of 2017 in the south, west and center of the European part of the country will be lower than usual. In the basins of Kostroma, Unzha, Vyatka, Kama, Ural, rivers of the Trans-Volga region, flood maxima will be above the norm, in other river basins - mostly close to it.

Forecast

cyclic emergencies and incidents caused by the spring flood of 2017 in the Saratov region

(In developing this forecast, data from the Saratovcenter for hydrometeorology and environmental monitoring - branch of the Federal State Budgetary Institution "Privolzhskoye UGMS").

Characteristics of the hydrological network

The river network of the region consists of 358 small rivers with a predominant direction of flow to the south and southwest. The main water artery is the Volga River with the Saratov and Volgograd reservoirs.

The Volgograd reservoir is formed by the dam of the Volzhskaya hydroelectric power station (to the north of Volgograd) and extends over the main part of the region from the dam of the Saratov hydroelectric power station (city of Balakovo) and downstream to the border with the Volgograd region. The total area of ​​the water reservoir within the territory of the region is 3117 sq. km, average depth - 10 m.

The Saratov reservoir is formed by the dam of the Saratov hydroelectric power station near the city of Balakovo and extends northeast of the dam upstream to the border with the Samara (on the left bank) and Ulyanovsk (on the right bank) regions. The total area of ​​the water reservoir within the territory of the region is 1831 sq. km.

Both reservoirs freeze in mid-December, the ice thickness is from 40 to 70 cm. The water level in the reservoirs depends on the inflow of river water and the amount of water discharge through the dams of the Volga and Saratov hydroelectric power stations. The amplitude of water level fluctuations in reservoirs is up to 3 m.

Others most major rivers, flowing through the territory of the region, are: Medveditsa, Khoper, Big and Small Uzen.

The rest of the rivers are mostly small and shallow (10-15 m wide, up to 2 m deep, and with a flow rate of 0.1-0.6 m/s).

Regional features of the passage of floods

According to the degree of danger, the flood in the region belongs to the moderately dangerous type. In some years, the maximum levels during the flood period can reach dangerous values, at which settlements and individual objects are subject to partial flooding.

The parameters of the emergency situation during the spring flood are determined by the deviation from the average long-term values ​​of the parameters of autumn soil moisture, soil freezing, water reserves in the snow in the river basin, water rise levels, ice thickness on jammed rivers, and volumes of inflow into reservoirs.

The intensity of the flood is largely determined by the nature of the melting of the snow cover, as well as the depth of soil freezing. The most dangerous situation is the rapid melting of heavy snow cover after winter, which is also accompanied by heavy rainfall. In this case, all melt and rain water flows down the frozen ground directly into the river, as a result, the flood can be catastrophic.

The situation is reversed - a small amount of snow after a relatively mild winter (when the soil is frozen shallow) melts slowly, which happens in the case of a long spring. Then a significant part of the melt water goes into the soil, and a small amount of it gets into the riverbed: the flood is weak.

In accordance with the schedule of cyclically recurring natural hazards in the Saratov region, the flood period is divided into two stages:

the first stage begins in the period - the end of March - the beginning of April and is accompanied by the opening of small rivers;

the second stage on the Volga River, due to an increase in the discharge of water through the Saratov hydroelectric complex, which is part of the Volga-Kama cascade, as a rule, begins in the 3rd decade of April.

The average duration of the flood is 20-30 days.

During the flood period, there is a possibility of emergencies associated with:

flooding (flooding) of territories and objects located on them due to high water levels as a result of spring snowmelt, the formation of ice jams, accidents at hydraulic structures;

failures under the ice of people and vehicles, separation of coastal ice floes with people on them;

with accidents at hydraulic structures;

active development of exogenous-geological processes (bank erosion, landslides, flooding).

Hydrometeorological situation

Winter 2016-2017 On the territory of the Saratov region, meteorologically, it was characterized by alternating periods of abnormally cold and warm weather. In February, there was an increased temperature regime and heavy rainfall.

According to measurements at the network of meteorological stations, the autumn moistening of the meter soil layer in the basins of the rivers of the Left Bank of the region was 107-116% of the norm, in the basins of the rivers Tereshka, Kazanla, Kurdyum in the Right Bank - 159% of the norm.

Stable snow cover in most of the territory of the Saratov region was formed in the period from 01 to 03 December 2016, which is 1-7 days later than the norm, in a number of northern and western regions Right Bank - November 13-15, 2016, 10-21 days earlier than normal.

From the date of the last determination of moisture reserves in the fall - October 28, 2016 - until February 28, 2017, an average of 145 mm of precipitation fell in the region, which corresponds to the climatic norm (norm 145 mm).

Hydrometeorological situation in the Saratov region as of March 6, 2017

The third ten-day period of February was characterized by an increased temperature regime and an abundance of precipitation. Average daily air temperatures throughout the region were mainly within -1…+3ºС, only on February 26…27 they were equal to -4…-0ºС. The maximum air temperatures reached +2…+6ºС. Throughout the region, from 7 to 8 days with thaws were observed.

The average ten-day air temperature was -1.0…+1.1ºС, which is higher than the ten-day norm by 7.6…9.7ºС. The regional average was 0.0ºС, which is 8.6ºС higher than the climatic one and 0.8ºС higher than last year.

The first decade of March is also characterized by high temperatures.

According to the snow survey conducted by the network divisions of the Saratov CGMS on March 5, the highest snow depth of 36-44 cm was observed in the forest in the Volsky district, in the Bazarno-Karabulaksky district and Perelyub. The smallest snow height of 1-5 cm was recorded in the village. Splavnukha Krasnoarmeisky district, with. Medyanikovo, Voskresensky district, in the village. Orlov Guy Ershovsky district and Novouzensk. In the southern regions of the Left Bank, as well as in Marksovsky, Rovno and in the south of the Krasnoarmeisky region, the snow has melted or occupies less than half of the visible surroundings. In the rest of the region, snow cover remains 10-30 cm high. The average regional indicator of snow cover height was 14 cm (50% of the norm, decreased by 4 cm in five days). In 2016, on this date, it was 11 cm.

The stock of water in the snow on March 5 in most of the region varied from 17 to 76 mm. The highest values ​​from 90 to 119 mm were noted in the forest area on the territory of the Volsky district, in the Petrovsky and Bazarno-Karabulaksky districts in the Right Bank and 100-109 mm in Ershov and Perelyub. The smallest margin of 2 and 7 mm was measured in Orlov Gai and Novouzensk . The average regional indicator of water reserves in the snow was 43 mm at a rate of 83 mm (decreased by 14 mm over a five-day period).

In 2016, on this date, it was 43 mm.

Against the background of positive average daily air temperatures during the last ten days of February, soil freezing decreased almost everywhere by 1–20 cm. up to 71 ... 83 cm. In Balashov, Rtishchevo, Orlov Gai, Novouzensk and Aleksandrov Gai, the depth of soil freezing was 10 ... 29 cm, while in Aleksandrov Gai, the soil thawed from above by 6 cm. cm, decreased by 4 cm over the period). In 2016, on this date, it was 19 cm.

According to the monthly forecast of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia in March 2017, the average monthly air temperature in the Saratov region will exceed the norm by 1.6°C, and the monthly precipitation will be 115% of the climatic norm.

In the next ten days, anticyclonic weather is expected in the Saratov region. The air temperature in the daytime will vary from -3 to +3°C, in the western regions of the region up to +6°C. At night, the air temperature will be negative up to -3…-8°С, in the north-eastern regions up to -10…-12°С. Significant precipitation is not forecast.

In accordance with the forecast weather conditions, the processes of snowmelt and ice cover destruction on the water bodies of the region will slow down.

Ice conditions on the Volga reservoirs and small rivers.

• on the small rivers of the Bolshoi and Malyi Irgiz, Bolshoy Uzen, Tereshka, Medveditsa regions, the ice thickness on March 5 ranged from 20 to 52 cm, which is 2-43 cm less than the average long-term values, on the Bolshoy Irgiz it is 2 cm more than the norm. On most rivers the destruction of the ice cover began, rims, gullies appeared, the ice darkened. The Bolshoi Karaman River near the Sovetskoye village cleared of ice.
• on the Saratov reservoir near the city of Balakovo, the ice thickness is 25 cm (norm 48 cm);
• on the Volgograd reservoir there are gullies, rims, the ice has darkened, near the city of Volsk there is a thick ice drift, near the village of Rovnoye the ice thickness is 50 cm.

river opening basins of the Volga and the Urals is expected in the period 19.03 - 03.04, on average 5-6 days earlier than the average long-term periods.

Expected flow layers in river basins:

1. Large and Small Irgiza 50-70 mm (norm 40 mm).
2. Big Kushum, Big Karaman, Big and Small Uzeni 25-45 mm (norm 21 mm).
3. Tereshka, Kazanla, Kurdyum 45-65 mm (norm 38 mm).

The maximum rise in water level from the winter low water is expected:

• on the river Big Irgiz near the city of Pugachev up to 5.8 m;
• on the river Small Irgiz near the village of Seleznikha up to 4.6 m;
• on the river Bolshoi Karaman near the village of Sovetskoe up to 5.4 m;
• on the river Kazanla at the station Kurilovka up to 2.8 m;
• on the river Maly Uzen near the village of Maly Uzen up to 5.7 m;
• on the Big Uzen river near Novouzensk up to 4.7 m;
• on the Medveditsa river near the village of Lysyye Gory up to 4.2 m;
• on the river Khoper near Balashov up to 3.8 m.

Forecast for the development of spring floods

According to the forecast of Roshydromet in March 2017, the average monthly air temperature is expected to be 1.6°C above the climatic norm, the monthly precipitation will be 115% of the long-term average.

According to long-term observations (period 1971-2000), the average monthly air temperature in March ranges from -3.0º ... -4.2ºС in the central and southern regions of the region to -5.0ºС in the northern regions. In Saratov, it is -3.0ºС.

Change in the average daily air temperature during the month:

As of the end of the first decade of March in the territory of the region -7.0º ... -9.0ºС;

As of the end of the second decade of March -3.0º ... -6.0ºС.

As of the end of the third decade of March +1.5º…-2.5ºС.

The temperature regime of March is heterogeneous: there is an alternation of periods of cold and slightly frosty weather. The change of air masses is accompanied by precipitation, mainly in the form of wet snow, increased wind, and snowstorms.

The beginning of meteorological spring occurs with the transition of the average daily air temperature through 0ºС towards positive values.

In cloudy weather and due to the increase in the duration of daylight hours, compaction and gradual melting of snow are observed, moisture accumulates in the surface air layer and, as a result, fogs form in the morning hours, which can persist during the first half of the day.

The destruction of the snow cover usually begins in the third decade of March. This year, in the first decade of March, an increased temperature regime is expected. The average daily air temperature will exceed the climatic norm by 3…7°C.

Monthly rainfall: in most areas Saratov region20…25 mm, least in the southeast of the region (18…19mm); greatest(26….33mm) in some places in the Right Bank. In Saratov 25mm. The number of days with precipitation is 10…12.

Based on the prevailing hydrometeorological conditions, as of March 6, 2017, spring floods on the rivers of the Saratov region belonging to the Volga and Ural basins are expected to be 43-188 cm above the norm, on the rivers of the Don basin – below the norm by 23 - 91 cm. The rise in the water level in the rivers, in comparison with the winter low water levels, in the case of the most unfavorable hydrometeorological situation, is possible from 2.8 to 5.8 meters.

The flood situation on the small rivers of the region can be complicated by a sharp increase in air temperature to positive values, which will lead to a sharp rise in water levels, as well as heavy precipitation in the form of rain.

FORECAST MAXIMUM LEVELS

spring flood 2017 on small rivers of the Saratov region

(levels are given in cm above the zero of the graph).

R e c a - P u n c t	pre-spring level, cm	maximum spring floods	high water	Unfavorable		perennial	relatively	Max-
Small Irgiz river - Seleznikha village
Bolshoy Irgiz River - Pugachev
r.Kazanla - s.Kurilovka
Bolshoi Karaman River - Sovetskoe village
r. Maly Uzen - v. Maly Uzen
Bolshoy Uzen River - Novouzensk
Khoper River - Balashov
r.Medveditsa - village Bald Mountains

P O G N O Z

TERMS OF CLEANING FROM ICE OF RESERVOIRS

VOLGA CASCADE

WATER OBJECT	Expected dates ice cleansing	date of cleansing off ice in 2016	Long-term characteristics of ice-clearing dates
KUIBYSHEVSKOE RESERVOIR
SARATOV RESERVOIR
VOLGOGRAD RESERVOIR

EXPECTED OPENING OF SMALL RIVERS OF THE REGION

	Expected dates autopsy	Autopsy dates in 2016	Long-term characteristics of river opening dates
SMALL IRGIZ
BIG IRGIZ upstream
BIG IRGIZ downstream
BIG CARAMAN
SMALL UZEN
BIG UZEN
KHOPER - BALASHOV
BEAR - BALD MOUNTAINS

EXPECTED SPRING INFLOW OF WATER TO RESERVOIRS

IRRIGATION SYSTEMS (million m 3).

RIVER - RESERVOIR	EXPECTED	MULTI-YEAR CHARACTERISTICS
SWEATSHIRT - TOLSTOVSKOE
ERUSLAN - LEBEDEVSKOE
SMALL UZEN-VARFOLOMEYEVSKOE
BIG UZEN - NOVOUZENSK

Consultation

on the expected timing of the onset of the highest levels of the rivers of the Don basin

Forecast of emergencies during the flood period

The basis for forecasting flood-prone zones in the region for the upcoming flood is information on the predicted maximum water levels, data from the "Flooding Risks" register and statistical information on actual incidents of past years associated with the negative impact of flood waters.

Based on the statistical analysis of the passage of floods, with a probability of 0.05, a possible occurrence of emergencies at the municipal level is predicted in Volsky, Dergachevsky, Ozinsky, Novouzensky, Perelyubsky, Petrovsky and Pugachevsky areas. Along with them, another 15 districts of the region may be flood-prone: Atkarsky, Arkadaksky, Balashovsky, Baltaisky, Ivanteevsky, Ershovsky, Novouzensky, Kalininsky, Krasnoarmeisky, Krasnokutsky, Lysogorsky, Marksovsky, Samoilovsky, Rtishchevsky, Romanovsky and Tatishchevsky districts.

In the above 22 municipal areas as a result of the worst-case scenario of flood conditions, the territories of 76 settlements (4942 houses), where about 12262 people live, may be in the zone of possible flooding or flooding.

In addition, 47 bridges, 3 socially significant objects ( educational institution), 54 plots highways local and regional importance with a length of up to 82 km.

Flooding of sections of main gas, oil, product pipelines, economic facilities, incl. potentially dangerous objects, cattle burial grounds are not predicted.

While maintaining the maximum water levels on the rivers of the region within the average long-term values ​​and the opening of the rivers in terms close to the norm, minor flooding of settlements located in the lowlands is expected.

Flooding of some parts of the territories is possible, primarily low-water bridges in Atkarsky, Volsky, Dergachevsky, Pugachevsky, Petrovsky, Perelyubsky, Novouzensky, Samoilovsky, Ivanteevsky districts .

Ensure the implementation of the decisions taken by the Commission for the Prevention and Elimination of Emergency Situations and Ensuring Fire Safety under the Government of the Saratov Region on the issues of safe passage of spring floods in full and on time. 2016 (Minutes No. 3 dated February 10, 2016, and minutes No. 4 dated March 9, 2016);

Prepare in advance administrative documents for the adoption by officials of executive authorities, local governments, organizations, facilities and forces of the STP RSChS decisions on the implementation of preventive measures and the elimination of the consequences of flooding, traffic order, sanitary and epidemic measures, etc.);

Inform the population of the region through means mass media about the flood situation, to carry out warning about the threat of flooding, to carry out explanatory work on the actions of the population during the flood (flood) and emergency situations. Distribute in areas of possible flooding memos on the actions of the population in case of flooding;

Inform the public about the expediency of early conclusion of contracts for property insurance against spring floods.

Inform the population about the extreme danger of going out on fragile ice. Establish warning signs at especially dangerous places in water bodies and in areas of mass access of the population to the ice;

Increase the readiness of the observation network and laboratory control for actions during the spring flood;

Carry out monitoring of flood control dams in order to identify the weakest sections in advance and take measures to strengthen them and prevent a breakthrough;

Perform preventive strengthening of flood control dams;

Carry out measures to strengthen roads that fall into areas of possible flooding. Prepare detour routes for vehicles;

Carry out preventive work among the population in the field of fire safety, check the organization of fire prevention measures in flood-prone areas and settlements cut off by flood waters;

Plan measures for the operational use of the GPS forces to solve problems of pumping water from flooded structures and terrain;

Organize monitoring of landslide areas where there is a threat settlements, roads and railways;

Organize preparations for carrying out measures for the possible evacuation of the population and material assets from areas of possible flooding (clarify the calculation of forces and means) and carry it out in advance in case of a threat of emergency. To determine the places of accommodation (PVR) of the evacuated population, to clarify the routes of evacuation of the population from flooded areas, the order of priority life support for the population. Communicate to the population the procedure and rules of conduct in the event of an evacuation.

Create formations of transport and material support;

Allocate financial resources for carrying out activities, creating stocks of funds to eliminate the consequences;

At meetings of anti-flood commissions under the administrations of cities (districts), consider the need to take measures to prevent contamination of drinking water, ensure its stable quality during the spring flood;

To intensify the conduct of sanitary-educational work among the population about the causes of the emergence and spread of infectious diseases and measures to prevent them;

Conduct unscheduled inspections of water intakes, water supply networks and structures with the issuance of specific proposals to be urgently executed, including on preparatory measures for the flood period;

Plan and conduct an inspection of the condition of sewer facilities and networks, receivers Wastewater, places of collection and storage of industrial and household waste;

At the same time, pay special attention to the possibility of contaminated meltwater entering underground water intakes, water supply networks and structures (including wells on the water supply network, basements of residential buildings), as well as sources of decentralized water supply;

Prepare collector systems for flood passage, paying special attention to collectors located in low areas and water passage zones under roads;

Monitor the readiness of forces and means for action in accordance with approved plans.